For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

July 3 (Reuters) - A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion on Monday since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets ...

This week's simulation shows that inverted yields are a 93.4% probability through August 2023. Details below. Excel summaries of the simulation results for 3-month T-bills and the 10-year Treasury are ...

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