Instead of a single number, it wants policy-makers and those in the media to coach their understanding of its figures with reference to confidence intervals. Confidence intervals, a mainstay of ...
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those ...
It’s another installment of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, politics ...
In this paper I describe the effect of parameter uncertainty on the way conditional forecast variances grow as the forecast horizon increases. Without parameter uncertainty, forecast variances for the ...
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